Climate Change and Fine Wine: An Industry That May Not Age Well After All
This wine industry, like many others, is no stranger to change. Since its inception, viticulturists have endured environmental setbacks, including severe droughts and disease outbreaks that threatened entire regions. While the earliest evidence of grape wine, a style most popular today, traces all the way back to the Middle East approximately 4500 years ago, Italy, Spain, and France now dominate the global wine industry. Not only are they considered experts in grape wine cultivation, but they are also among the world's largest wine consumers. However, experts predict that rising global temperatures will trigger a transformation for these centuries-old producers, from which they might never fully recover.
A Brief Overview of One of the World’s Most Lucrative Industries
Global consumers have long preferred red and white wine styles over alcoholic products like beer, with a market worth just over 340 billion USD. Southern European and Mediterranean countries virtually monopolize the wine industry at large, with climates exceptionally suitable for grape harvesting. France, Italy, and Spain export 28, 38.3, and 28.3 million hectolitres, respectively, each year. Moreover, the three countries cumulatively produce just under half of the world’s wine. Notably, the United States also retains a substantial market share, with an annual output of over 24 million hectolitres in 2023.
Today, thousands of grape varieties are used for winemaking, all grown in varying climates. A region and its weather conditions influence the size and sweetness of grapes, along with the total output a vineyard can produce. As a result, many countries have specialties in wine production; examples include French Chardonnay and Italian Vermentino.
Too close to the Equator
Most wine-producing countries share a close-ish proximity to the equator, with temperate-to-warm temperatures ideal for grape harvesting. In essence, if a climate is not too tropical, too barren, or too cold, it may be suitable for viticulture. Overly hot weather weather can reduce acidity in crops, corrupt the wine's taste, and, in the worst-case scenario, cause the grapes to dehydrate. That being said, some species of grapes are more sensitive to heat than others, with Chardonnay and Ugni Blanc being the most vulnerable. Over the next 75 years, global temperatures are expected to increase, on average, by 4 degrees Celsius. Accordingly, prominent exporters could encounter weather conditions incompatible with viticulture, inducing considerable disruption in the wine industry.
France is already experiencing earlier harvesting seasons due to increased temperatures. While Bordeaux's taste has improved due to the heat, these benefits should only be considered temporary, as many French grapes are at risk of becoming endangered species. Furthermore, extreme drought and disease have rendered much of Spain's land unsuitable for wine production, and Italy has lost its top spot in global wine exports due to a drastic decline in its 2023 wine outputs.
Climate change may force the world's three largest wine exporters out of the market, but we expect the demand for traditional red and white wine styles to endure and even increase in the coming years. Therefore, one must consider which countries will aim to become leading global wine producers, capitalizing on a potentially unsaturated market. Because temperatures are increasing globally, prime grape-growing territory is expanding to countries that were previously considered unsuitable for viticulture. Will vineyards pop up anywhere and everywhere that can ‘beat the heat?’ Well, the answer might be a bit more complicated than that due to strict regulations on wine production, a struggle to gain the same favorability among consumers as, for example, the French Bordeaux or Italian Pinot Grigio, and numerous other challenges that arise concerning emerging markets. That being said, we expect Northern European countries, including the Netherlands, to present viable climates for wine cultivation. Higher-latitude properties, like those in the United Kingdom, could become highly sought-after as ideal vineyard locations. Alternatively, with the U.S. already rising in the global ranks among wine exporters, it is not a far-fetched prediction that they may eventually attain a leading market share.
How can the Big 3 Beat the Heat?
By 2100, experts predict that 90 percent of grape-growing regions in France, Italy, and Spain will disappear. While climate change seems inevitable, that does not mean that these exporters cannot put up a fight in an attempt to combat rising temperatures and retain at least some of their market shares.
Taking a Hike
A prominent consideration for many producers is whether or not to take a more aggressive position, moving their business northward. Northern France, for example, should eventually adopt a climate suitable for producing Bordeaux grapes. Shifting locations slightly would allow such harvesters to continue selling traditional wines while retaining the positive reputation importers associate with French varieties. For those who cannot find better harvesting locations within their borders, investing in agricultural land in other parts of the world may be wise. After all, just as a cannoli purchased from an Italian family-owned bakery that is located in Canada and made using traditional Italian methods is considered authentic, so might be Italy's Pino Grigio or the Spanish Albarino, even when produced in alternative locations.
Adapting More Advanced Agricultural Technologies
Wine technology is continuously evolving, as seen through the development of optical sorters and filtration systems. Some producers have even developed mechanisms that remove smoke taint from grapes or prevent osmosis, combating the threat of droughts and wildfires. Canadian viticulturists have also sought to combat climate change by covering vines with permeable blankets and using wind machines to promote air circulation. As a result, European vineyards could utilize these technological advancements to keep their crops safe, either by selecting from existing innovations or developing systems that cater to their specific geographical needs. Forecasts indicate that by 2050, the world will need to increase food production by over 50 percent to feed the growing population, necessitating farmers to produce more food at a faster pace. With this dominant focus on innovation within the agricultural sphere, viticulturists could attempt to piggyback off any resulting technological advancements.
Unfortunately, for some grape varieties, technology may provide little help. The French Bordeaux grape, for instance, is reliant on manual harvesting methods with minimal technological intervention. While some argue that the species is resistant to heat, whether this is a fact or a hopeful delusion, in drought or extreme weather conditions, Bordeaux vines will likely remain helpless.
New Farming Techniques
When harvesters are unable to beat climate change, all they can do is try to adapt their methodologies to be more durable in light of increasingly volatile environmental conditions. Numerous new viticultural techniques have surfaced in an attempt to keep the global wine industry afloat. For some producers, this includes changing the direction in which their vines are facing—curtailing sunlight. Traditionally, producers have always planted grape vines on slopes facing north. However, producers have recently begun to plant south-facing crops to prevent overripening from increased temperatures. Meanwhile, others have been experimenting with embedding alternative plant species between their vines to enhance soil quality and water retention.
Precise farming techniques, which allow producers to critically manage and optimize their outputs, are also on the rise. While this thoughtful methodology allows grape harvesters to reduce their ecological footprints and hopefully try to slow down the effects of climate change, it also requires substantially more energy than otherwise. Some growers have resorted to using solar panels, which can also act as a protective shield for vines when exposed to extreme heat or even frost.
Growing New Grape Varieties
Interestingly, some producers are now deciding to harvest more heat-resistant grape varieties, such as those used in Grenache or hybrid wines, which are better adapted to harsher weather conditions. Spanish wine producers are even considering reintroducing ancient grape varieties. Due to climate change, Spain has found its grapes ripening far too quickly, rushing them to harvest on an accelerated timeline. These ‘heat-resistant’ grapes, which they seek to revive, take longer to ripen and are thus more suitable to increasing temperatures. Some of the ancient varieties that Spanish viticulturists seek to harvest, including castets, are also more resistant to disease.
That being said, these cannot be considered fix-all solutions. Different harvesting locations, methodologies, and grape varieties are likely to produce different styles of wine. Consumers may not be so quick to adapt, still seeking the more traditional options they prefer. European producers may struggle to stay relevant, and new leaders in the viticultural industry may emerge. Ultimately, though, the future of the global wine market remains relatively unpredictable.